Actual Marine Forecasting

Validation

A model's error at a station is the sum of independent contributions: boundary forcing, bathymetry, friction, resolution, physics. We maintain an explicit error budget for each model and report performance station by station, constituent by constituent, against NOAA's published harmonic constants.

Reports include the misses as well as the hits; they are what direct further calibration effort.

Example rows from a baseline M2 elevation scoreboard (Massachusetts pilot, prior to calibration). An amplitude ratio of 1.00 and phase error of 0 minutes indicate perfect agreement.
NOAA stationConstituentAmplitude ratioPhase error
Boston, MAM21.03+11 min
Sandwich, MAM21.16n/a
Chatham, MAM20.87n/a
Woods Hole, MAM20.66n/a